The Signals Ted Tracks
Ted monitors six categories of signals that predict breakout companies before the market catches on. Here is exactly what Ted watches and why each signal matters.
Hiring Velocity
Companies hire in advance of revenue. Track hiring and you predict growth.
What Ted Monitors
- Headcount growth rate (percentage change over 30, 60, 90 days)
- Key executive hires (VP Engineering, VP Sales, CFO — each signals a different phase)
- Engineering team scaling (absolute and relative to company size)
- Role composition shifts (first sales hires, first customer success hires)
- Source company quality (hires from notable companies signal talent magnetism)
- Job posting velocity and description language changes
Why It Matters
Hiring is the strongest leading indicator because it represents committed capital allocation. Companies do not hire speculatively. When hiring velocity accelerates, revenue growth follows 3-6 months later.
Funding Activity
Capital follows conviction. But the signal is in the details, not just the headline.
What Ted Monitors
- New rounds announced (amount, investors, valuation signals)
- Bridge rounds and extensions (often not publicly announced but detectable)
- Investor syndicate changes (new investors joining, existing investors doubling down)
- SEC filing analysis (Form D filings reveal timing and amount before press announcements)
- Grant awards and non-dilutive funding (government, foundation, accelerator grants)
- Revenue-based financing activity (signals cash flow strength)
Why It Matters
Everyone tracks funding rounds. The alpha is in tracking the signals around funding: who invested, how the round was structured, and what the filing timing reveals about the company's trajectory.
Traction Indicators
The hardest signals to track and often the most valuable.
What Ted Monitors
- Web traffic trends (month-over-month growth, traffic source changes)
- App store rankings and download velocity
- Review site activity (G2, Capterra — review volume and sentiment)
- Social media follower growth and engagement patterns
- Customer logo additions (detected through LinkedIn, case studies, press)
- Job board presence (companies appearing on 'best places to work' lists)
Why It Matters
Traction signals are proxy measures for revenue growth. No single metric is definitive, but the combination of accelerating web traffic, growing app store reviews, and new customer logos paints a clear picture.
Press and Mentions
Media coverage correlates with momentum. The signal is in the trajectory.
What Ted Monitors
- First major press mention (transition from unknown to visible)
- Press frequency acceleration (going from occasional to regular coverage)
- Quality of coverage (trade press vs. mainstream vs. Tier 1 tech media)
- Conference speaking slots and award nominations
- Podcast appearances and thought leadership content
- Analyst mentions and industry report inclusions
Why It Matters
Press is a lagging indicator of product success but a leading indicator of fundraising momentum. Companies with accelerating media coverage are often 3-6 months from starting a raise.
Product Launches
Shipping velocity reveals execution capability and strategic direction.
What Ted Monitors
- New product announcements and major feature releases
- API launches (signals platform strategy and developer ecosystem investment)
- Pricing page changes (signals go-to-market evolution)
- Integration and partnership announcements
- Open source activity (GitHub stars, contributor growth, release frequency)
- Patent and trademark filings (reveals long-term product strategy)
Why It Matters
Companies that ship frequently are executing well. Product launches also signal strategic direction: an API launch means platform ambitions, enterprise features mean moving upmarket, a free tier means product-led growth.
Market Timing
Context matters. The same company in a hot sector is a different investment than in a cold one.
What Ted Monitors
- Sector funding velocity (is capital flowing into this space?)
- Regulatory developments (new regulations creating tailwinds or headwinds)
- Large exits in adjacent spaces (validates the market opportunity)
- Incumbent disruption signals (legacy players losing market share)
- Competitive landscape shifts (mergers, shutdowns, pivots among competitors)
- Analyst and research firm market size revisions
Why It Matters
Market timing does not make a company great, but it affects the probability and magnitude of outcomes. A strong company in a sector with regulatory tailwinds and recent large exits has a different risk profile than the same company in a sector facing headwinds.
No Single Signal Is Definitive
The power of Ted's approach is the combination. A company with strong hiring velocity AND accelerating traction AND recent press is a fundamentally different signal profile than a company with just one of those. Ted's scoring model weights and combines all six categories against your specific thesis, delivering a composite score that reflects the full picture.